• Application of Bayesian approaches in drug development: starting a virtuous cycle

    Type Journal Article
    Author Stephen J. Ruberg
    Author Francois Beckers
    Author Rob Hemmings
    Author Peter Honig
    Author Telba Irony
    Author Lisa LaVange
    Author Grazyna Lieberman
    Author James Mayne
    Author Richard Moscicki
    URL https://www.nature.com/articles/s41573-023-00638-0
    Rights 2023 Springer Nature Limited
    Pages 1-16
    Publication Nature Reviews Drug Discovery
    ISSN 1474-1784
    Date 2023-02-15
    Extra Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
    Journal Abbr Nat Rev Drug Discov
    DOI 10.1038/s41573-023-00638-0
    Accessed 2/16/2023, 2:20:27 PM
    Library Catalog www.nature.com
    Language en
    Abstract The pharmaceutical industry and its global regulators have routinely used frequentist statistical methods, such as null hypothesis significance testing and p values, for evaluation and approval of new treatments. The clinical drug development process, however, with its accumulation of data over time, can be well suited for the use of Bayesian statistical approaches that explicitly incorporate existing data into clinical trial design, analysis and decision-making. Such approaches, if used appropriately, have the potential to substantially reduce the time and cost of bringing innovative medicines to patients, as well as to reduce the exposure of patients in clinical trials to ineffective or unsafe treatment regimens. Nevertheless, despite advances in Bayesian methodology, the availability of the necessary computational power and growing amounts of relevant existing data that could be used, Bayesian methods remain underused in the clinical development and regulatory review of new therapies. Here, we highlight the value of Bayesian methods in drug development, discuss barriers to their application and recommend approaches to address them. Our aim is to engage stakeholders in the process of considering when the use of existing data is appropriate and how Bayesian methods can be implemented more routinely as an effective tool for doing so.
    Short Title Application of Bayesian approaches in drug development
    Date Added 2/16/2023, 2:20:27 PM
    Modified 2/16/2023, 2:21:02 PM

    Tags:

    • teaching
    • bayes
    • teaching-mds
    • drug-development
  • A Bayesian Interpretation of a Pediatric Cardiac Arrest Trial (THAPCA-OH)

    Type Journal Article
    Author Michael O. Harhay
    Author Bryan S. Blette
    Author Anders Granholm
    Author Frank W. Moler
    Author Fernando G. Zampieri
    Author Ewan C. Goligher
    Author Monique M. Gardner
    Author Alexis A. Topjian
    Author Nadir Yehya
    URL https://evidence.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/EVIDoa2200196
    Volume 2
    Issue 1
    Pages EVIDoa2200196
    Publication NEJM Evidence
    Date 2022-12-27
    Extra Publisher: Massachusetts Medical Society
    DOI 10.1056/EVIDoa2200196
    Accessed 12/30/2022, 3:21:36 AM
    Library Catalog evidence.nejm.org (Atypon)
    Abstract BACKGROUND Pediatric out-of-hospital cardiac arrest results in high morbidity and mortality. Currently, there are no recommended therapies beyond supportive care. The THAPCA-OH (Therapeutic Hypothermia after Pediatric Cardiac Arrest Out-of-Hospital) trial compared hypothermia (33.0°C) with normothermia (36.8°C) in 295 children. Good neurobehavioral outcome and survival at 1 year were higher in the hypothermia group (20 vs. 12% and 38 vs. 29%, respectively). These differences did not meet the planned statistical threshold of P<0.05. To ensure that a potentially efficacious therapy is not prematurely discarded, we reassessed THAPCA-OH using a Bayesian statistical perspective. METHODS We performed a Bayesian analysis, interpreting the trial in probabilistic terms (i.e., the probability that therapeutic hypothermia had any benefit, and overall absolute improvements greater than 2%, 5%, and 10% for 1-year neurobehavioral outcome and survival). Our primary analyses used noninformative priors, meaning that the analyses were based on the observed trial data without any information added by the priors. In the absence of pediatric trials to derive informative prior distributions, we used: (1) downweighted priors from adult trials; and (2) a previously published set of critical care priors that span benefit, equipoise, and harm. RESULTS In the primary analyses, the probability of any benefit from hypothermia was 94% for both the neurobehavioral outcome and survival at 1 year. For both outcomes, the probability of benefit was >75% for all informative prior integrations with the THAPCA-OH results, except those with the most pessimistic priors. CONCLUSIONS There is a high probability that hypothermia provides a modest benefit in neurobehavioral outcome and survival at 1 year. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00878644.)
    Date Added 12/30/2022, 3:21:36 AM
    Modified 12/30/2022, 3:22:54 AM

    Tags:

    • teaching
    • rct
    • bayes
    • teaching-mds
    • borrow-information
  • Recommendations for Statistical Reporting in Cardiovascular Medicine: A Special Report From the American Heart Association

    Type Journal Article
    Author Andrew D. Althouse
    Author Jennifer E. Below
    Author Brian L. Claggett
    Author Nancy J. Cox
    Author James A. de Lemos
    Author Rahul C. Deo
    Author Sue Duval
    Author Rory Hachamovitch
    Author Sanjay Kaul
    Author Scott W. Keith
    Author Eric Secemsky
    Author Armando Teixeira-Pinto
    Author Veronique L. Roger
    Author null null
    URL https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.121.055393
    Volume 144
    Issue 4
    Pages e70-e91
    Publication Circulation
    Date July 27, 2021
    DOI 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.121.055393
    Accessed 1/11/2022, 7:37:12 AM
    Library Catalog ahajournals.org (Atypon)
    Abstract Statistical analyses are a crucial component of the biomedical research process and are necessary to draw inferences from biomedical research data. The application of sound statistical methodology is a prerequisite for publication in the American Heart Association (AHA) journal portfolio. The objective of this document is to summarize key aspects of statistical reporting that might be most relevant to the authors, reviewers, and readership of AHA journals. The AHA Scientific Publication Committee convened a task force to inventory existing statistical standards for publication in biomedical journals and to identify approaches suitable for the AHA journal portfolio. The experts on the task force were selected by the AHA Scientific Publication Committee, who identified 12 key topics that serve as the section headers for this document. For each topic, the members of the writing group identified relevant references and evaluated them as a resource to make the standards summarized herein. Each section was independently reviewed by an expert reviewer who was not part of the task force. Expert reviewers were also permitted to comment on other sections if they chose. Differences of opinion were adjudicated by consensus. The standards presented in this report are intended to serve as a guide for high-quality reporting of statistical analyses methods and results.
    Short Title Recommendations for Statistical Reporting in Cardiovascular Medicine
    Date Added 1/11/2022, 7:37:40 AM
    Modified 1/11/2022, 7:37:40 AM

    Tags:

    • bayes
    • teaching-mds
    • reporting-statistical-results
    • reporting
    • guidelines
  • Why are not There More Bayesian Clinical Trials? Perceived Barriers and Educational Preferences Among Medical Researchers Involved in Drug Development

    Type Journal Article
    Author Jennifer Clark
    Author Natalia Muhlemann
    Author Fanni Natanegara
    Author Andrew Hartley
    Author Deborah Wenkert
    Author Fei Wang
    Author Frank E. Harrell
    Author Ross Bray
    Author The Medical Outreach Subteam of the Drug Information Association Bayesian Scientific Working Group
    URL https://doi.org/10.1007/s43441-021-00357-x
    Publication Therapeutic Innovation & Regulatory Science
    ISSN 2168-4804
    Date 2022-01-03
    Journal Abbr Ther Innov Regul Sci
    DOI 10.1007/s43441-021-00357-x
    Accessed 1/8/2022, 7:51:22 AM
    Library Catalog Springer Link
    Language en
    Abstract The clinical trials community has been hesitant to adopt Bayesian statistical methods, which are often more flexible and efficient with more naturally interpretable results than frequentist methods. We aimed to identify self-reported barriers to implementing Bayesian methods and preferences for becoming comfortable with them.
    Short Title Why are not There More Bayesian Clinical Trials?
    Date Added 1/8/2022, 7:51:55 AM
    Modified 1/8/2022, 7:51:55 AM

    Tags:

    • bayes
    • teaching-mds
    • drug-development
  • Joint control of consensus and evidence in Bayesian design of clinical trials

    Type Journal Article
    Author Fulvio De Santis
    Author Stefania Gubbiotti
    URL https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/bimj.202100035
    Volume n/a
    Issue n/a
    Publication Biometrical Journal
    ISSN 1521-4036
    Date 2021
    Extra _eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/bimj.202100035
    DOI 10.1002/bimj.202100035
    Accessed 12/11/2021, 3:32:01 PM
    Library Catalog Wiley Online Library
    Language en
    Abstract In Bayesian inference, prior distributions formalize preexperimental information and uncertainty on model parameters. Sometimes different sources of knowledge are available, possibly leading to divergent posterior distributions and inferences. Research has been recently devoted to the development of sample size criteria that guarantee agreement of posterior information in terms of credible intervals when multiple priors are available. In these articles, the goals of reaching consensus and evidence are typically kept separated. Adopting a Bayesian performance-based approach, the present article proposes new sample size criteria for superiority trials that jointly control the achievement of both minimal evidence and consensus, measured by appropriate functions of the posterior distributions. We develop both an average criterion and a more stringent criterion that accounts for the entire predictive distributions of the selected measures of minimal evidence and consensus. Methods are developed and illustrated via simulation for trials involving binary outcomes. A real clinical trial example on Covid-19 vaccine data is presented.
    Date Added 12/11/2021, 3:32:01 PM
    Modified 12/12/2021, 2:42:29 PM

    Tags:

    • sample-size
    • teaching
    • bayes
    • prior
    • prior-elicitation
  • Effect of Intravenous or Intraosseous Calcium vs Saline on Return of Spontaneous Circulation in Adults With Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest: A Randomized Clinical Trial

    Type Journal Article
    Author Mikael Fink Vallentin
    Author Asger Granfeldt
    Author Carsten Meilandt
    Author Amalie Ling Povlsen
    Author Birthe Sindberg
    Author Mathias J. Holmberg
    Author Bo Nees Iversen
    Author Rikke Mærkedahl
    Author Lone Riis Mortensen
    Author Rasmus Nyboe
    Author Mads Partridge Vandborg
    Author Maren Tarpgaard
    Author Charlotte Runge
    Author Christian Fynbo Christiansen
    Author Thomas H. Dissing
    Author Christian Juhl Terkelsen
    Author Steffen Christensen
    Author Hans Kirkegaard
    Author Lars W. Andersen
    URL https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.20929
    Publication JAMA
    ISSN 0098-7484
    Date November 30, 2021
    Journal Abbr JAMA
    DOI 10.1001/jama.2021.20929
    Accessed 12/2/2021, 11:20:41 AM
    Library Catalog Silverchair
    Abstract It is unclear whether administration of calcium has a beneficial effect in patients with cardiac arrest.To determine whether administration of calcium during out-of-hospital cardiac arrest improves return of spontaneous circulation in adults.This double-blind, placebo-controlled randomized clinical trial included 397 adult patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and was conducted in the Central Denmark Region between January 20, 2020, and April 15, 2021. The last 90-day follow-up was on July 15, 2021.The intervention consisted of up to 2 intravenous or intraosseous doses with 5 mmol of calcium chloride (n = 197) or saline (n = 200). The first dose was administered immediately after the first dose of epinephrine.The primary outcome was sustained return of spontaneous circulation. The secondary outcomes included survival and a favorable neurological outcome (modified Rankin Scale score of 0-3) at 30 days and 90 days.Based on a planned interim analysis of 383 patients, the steering committee stopped the trial early due to concerns about harm in the calcium group. Of 397 adult patients randomized, 391 were included in the analyses (193 in the calcium group and 198 in the saline group; mean age, 68 [SD, 14] years; 114 [29%] were female). There was no loss to follow-up. There were 37 patients (19%) in the calcium group who had sustained return of spontaneous circulation compared with 53 patients (27%) in the saline group (risk ratio, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.49 to 1.03]; risk difference, −7.6% [95% CI, −16% to 0.8%]; P = .09). At 30 days, 10 patients (5.2%) in the calcium group and 18 patients (9.1%) in the saline group were alive (risk ratio, 0.57 [95% CI, 0.27 to 1.18]; risk difference, −3.9% [95% CI, −9.4% to 1.3%]; P = .17). A favorable neurological outcome at 30 days was observed in 7 patients (3.6%) in the calcium group and in 15 patients (7.6%) in the saline group (risk ratio, 0.48 [95% CI, 0.20 to 1.12]; risk difference, −4.0% [95% CI, −8.9% to 0.7%]; P = .12). Among the patients with calcium values measured who had return of spontaneous circulation, 26 (74%) in the calcium group and 1 (2%) in the saline group had hypercalcemia.Among adults with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, treatment with intravenous or intraosseous calcium compared with saline did not significantly improve sustained return of spontaneous circulation. These results do not support the administration of calcium during out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in adults.ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04153435
    Short Title Effect of Intravenous or Intraosseous Calcium vs Saline on Return of Spontaneous Circulation in Adults With Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest
    Date Added 12/2/2021, 11:20:41 AM
    Modified 12/2/2021, 11:21:29 AM

    Tags:

    • rct
    • bayes
    • teaching-mds
    • rct-interpretation

    Notes:

    • Followed recently published Bayesian re-analysis reporting guideliness of Michael Harhay et al

  • Breaking the Bayesian Ice with Preclinical Discovery Biologists by Predicting Inadequate Animal Enrolment

    Type Journal Article
    Author Thomas E. Bradstreet
    URL https://doi.org/10.1080/19466315.2020.1799856
    Volume 13
    Issue 3
    Pages 344-354
    Publication Statistics in Biopharmaceutical Research
    ISSN null
    Date July 3, 2021
    Extra Publisher: Taylor & Francis _eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/19466315.2020.1799856
    DOI 10.1080/19466315.2020.1799856
    Accessed 11/12/2021, 1:45:29 PM
    Library Catalog Taylor and Francis+NEJM
    Abstract An initial proposal was made to start 30 monkeys in the run-in period of a preclinical translational research study, to have 24 or more animals qualify for randomization in the subsequent treatment period. Based upon data from previous studies, Bayesian posterior prediction indicated that successful enrolment was highly unlikely. At least 67 animals were required to achieve an acceptable posterior predictive probability of success. Importantly, we leveraged these feasibility analyses to introduce our preclinical scientist collaborators to a Bayesian strategy for probability-based decision making. We provided them with a generous helping of graphics to effectively and efficiently illustrate Bayesian concepts and methods. We present our 4P strategy for collaboration with preclinical scientists: patience, persistence, positioning, and privilege. We discuss the alignment of the Bayesian and 4P strategies with goals common to pharmaceutical researchers: scientific innovation; stochastic intelligence and statistical literacy of team members; team collaboration and collegial partnerships; ethical acuity; and fiscal stewardship. Our article is as much about successfully reaching out to preclinical scientists, and introducing them to the Bayesian strategy, as it is about that strategy successfully addressing the animal enrolment question. This article is written at a statistical level accessible to both preclinical scientists and statisticians.
    Date Added 11/12/2021, 1:45:29 PM
    Modified 11/12/2021, 1:45:50 PM

    Tags:

    • sequential
    • bayes
    • teaching-mds
    • prior-elicitation
  • Dexamethasone 12 mg versus 6 mg for patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxaemia: a pre-planned, secondary Bayesian analysis of the COVID STEROID 2 trial

    Type Journal Article
    Author Anders Granholm
    Author Marie Warrer Munch
    Author Sheila Nainan Myatra
    Author Bharath Kumar Tirupakuzhi Vijayaraghavan
    Author Maria Cronhjort
    Author Rebecka Rubenson Wahlin
    Author Stephan M. Jakob
    Author Luca Cioccari
    Author Maj-Brit Nørregaard Kjær
    Author Gitte Kingo Vesterlund
    Author Tine Sylvest Meyhoff
    Author Marie Helleberg
    Author Morten Hylander Møller
    Author Thomas Benfield
    Author Balasubramanian Venkatesh
    Author Naomi E. Hammond
    Author Sharon Micallef
    Author Abhinav Bassi
    Author Oommen John
    Author Vivekanand Jha
    Author Klaus Tjelle Kristiansen
    Author Charlotte Suppli Ulrik
    Author Vibeke Lind Jørgensen
    Author Margit Smitt
    Author Morten H. Bestle
    Author Anne Sofie Andreasen
    Author Lone Musaeus Poulsen
    Author Bodil Steen Rasmussen
    Author Anne Craveiro Brøchner
    Author Thomas Strøm
    Author Anders Møller
    Author Mohd Saif Khan
    Author Ajay Padmanaban
    Author Jigeeshu Vasishtha Divatia
    Author Sanjith Saseedharan
    Author Kapil Borawake
    Author Farhad Kapadia
    Author Subhal Dixit
    Author Rajesh Chawla
    Author Urvi Shukla
    Author Pravin Amin
    Author Michelle S. Chew
    Author Christian Aage Wamberg
    Author Christian Gluud
    Author Theis Lange
    Author Anders Perner
    URL https://doi.org/10.1007/s00134-021-06573-1
    Publication Intensive Care Medicine
    ISSN 1432-1238
    Date 2021-11-10
    Journal Abbr Intensive Care Med
    DOI 10.1007/s00134-021-06573-1
    Accessed 11/12/2021, 11:07:59 AM
    Library Catalog Springer Link
    Language en
    Abstract We compared dexamethasone 12 versus 6 mg daily for up to 10 days in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and severe hypoxaemia in the international, randomised, blinded COVID STEROID 2 trial. In the primary, conventional analyses, the predefined statistical significance thresholds were not reached. We conducted a pre-planned Bayesian analysis to facilitate probabilistic interpretation.
    Short Title Dexamethasone 12 mg versus 6 mg for patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxaemia
    Date Added 11/12/2021, 11:07:59 AM
    Modified 11/12/2021, 11:09:06 AM

    Tags:

    • rct
    • bayes
    • teaching-mds
  • Therapeutic Anticoagulation with Heparin in Noncritically Ill Patients with Covid-19

    Type Journal Article
    Author ATTACC Investigators
    URL https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2105911
    Volume 0
    Issue 0
    Pages null
    Publication New England Journal of Medicine
    ISSN 0028-4793
    Date August 4, 2021
    Extra Publisher: Massachusetts Medical Society _eprint: https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2105911
    DOI 10.1056/NEJMoa2105911
    Accessed 8/7/2021, 2:31:29 PM
    Library Catalog Taylor and Francis+NEJM
    Date Added 8/7/2021, 2:31:29 PM
    Modified 8/7/2021, 2:33:06 PM

    Tags:

    • rct
    • bayes
    • teaching-mds
  • Using Bayesian Methods to Augment the Interpretation of Critical Care Trials. An Overview of Theory and Example Reanalysis of the Alveolar Recruitment for Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Trial

    Type Journal Article
    Author Fernando G. Zampieri
    Author Jonathan D. Casey
    Author Manu Shankar-Hari
    Author Frank E. Harrell
    Author Michael O. Harhay
    URL https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/10.1164/rccm.202006-2381CP
    Volume 203
    Issue 5
    Pages 543-552
    Publication American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine
    ISSN 1073-449X
    Date December 3, 2020
    Extra Publisher: American Thoracic Society - AJRCCM
    Journal Abbr Am J Respir Crit Care Med
    DOI 10.1164/rccm.202006-2381CP
    Accessed 3/1/2021, 2:54:29 PM
    Library Catalog atsjournals.org (Atypon)
    Abstract Most randomized trials are designed and analyzed using frequentist statistical approaches such as null hypothesis testing and P values. Conceptually, P values are cumbersome to understand, as they provide evidence of data incompatibility with a null hypothesis (e.g., no clinical benefit) and not direct evidence of the alternative hypothesis (e.g., clinical benefit). This counterintuitive framework may contribute to the misinterpretation that the absence of evidence is equal to evidence of absence and may cause the discounting of potentially informative data. Bayesian methods provide an alternative, probabilistic interpretation of data. The reanalysis of completed trials using Bayesian methods is becoming increasingly common, particularly for trials with effect estimates that appear clinically significant despite P values above the traditional threshold of 0.05. Statistical inference using Bayesian methods produces a distribution of effect sizes that would be compatible with observed trial data, interpreted in the context of prior assumptions about an intervention (called “priors”). These priors are chosen by investigators to reflect existing beliefs and past empirical evidence regarding the effect of an intervention. By calculating the likelihood of clinical benefit, a Bayesian reanalysis can augment the interpretation of a trial. However, if priors are not defined a priori, there is a legitimate concern that priors could be constructed in a manner that produces biased results. Therefore, some standardization of priors for Bayesian reanalysis of clinical trials may be desirable for the critical care community. In this Critical Care Perspective, we discuss both frequentist and Bayesian approaches to clinical trial analysis, introduce a framework that researchers can use to select priors for a Bayesian reanalysis, and demonstrate how to apply our proposal by conducting a novel Bayesian trial reanalysis.
    Date Added 3/1/2021, 2:54:29 PM
    Modified 3/1/2021, 2:55:01 PM

    Tags:

    • rct
    • bayes
    • teaching-mds
    • basic
  • Interleukin-6 Receptor Antagonists in Critically Ill Patients with Covid-19

    Type Journal Article
    Author REMAP-CAP Investigators
    URL https://dx.doi.org/10.1056/nejmoa2100433
    Publication New England Journal of Medicine
    ISSN 0028-4793
    Date 2021
    Extra Publisher: Massachusetts Medical Society
    Journal Abbr New England Journal of Medicine
    DOI 10.1056/nejmoa2100433
    Date Added 2/27/2021, 7:28:40 AM
    Modified 2/27/2021, 7:30:16 AM

    Tags:

    • bayes
    • teaching-mds
    • reporting
    • adaptive
    • adaptive-clinical-trials
    • reporting-clinical-trials
    • ordinal
  • Explaining the Gibbs sampler

    Type Journal Article
    Author George Casella
    Author Edward I. George
    Volume 46
    Pages 167-174
    Publication Am Statistician
    Date 1992
    Extra Citation Key: cas92exp tex.citeulike-article-id= 13263865 tex.posted-at= 2014-07-14 14:09:24 tex.priority= 0
    Date Added 7/7/2018, 1:38:33 PM
    Modified 1/19/2021, 8:04:49 AM

    Tags:

    • teaching
    • bayesian-inference
    • resampling
    • data-augmentation
    • gibbs-sampler
    • monte-carlo
  • Statistical Remedies for Medical Researchers

    Type Book
    Author Peter F. Thall
    URL https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030437138
    Series Springer Series in Pharmaceutical Statistics
    Publisher Springer International Publishing
    ISBN 978-3-030-43713-8
    Date 2020
    Extra DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-43714-5
    Accessed 1/9/2021, 7:48:50 AM
    Library Catalog www.springer.com
    Language en
    Abstract This book illustrates numerous statistical practices that are commonly used by medical researchers, but which have severe flaws that may not be obvious. For each example, it provides one or more alternative statistical methods that avoid misleading or incorrect inferences being made. The technical level is kept to a minimum to make the book accessible to non-statisticians. At the same time, since many of the examples describe methods used routinely by medical statisticians with formal statistical training, the book appeals to a broad readership in the medical research community.
    Date Added 1/9/2021, 7:48:50 AM
    Modified 1/9/2021, 7:50:00 AM

    Tags:

    • bayes
    • teaching-mds
    • basic
  • Reporting Bayesian Results

    Type Journal Article
    Author David Rindskopf
    URL https://doi.org/10.1177/0193841X20977619
    Pages 0193841X20977619
    Publication Evaluation Review
    ISSN 0193-841X
    Date December 30, 2020
    Extra Publisher: SAGE Publications Inc
    Journal Abbr Eval Rev
    DOI 10.1177/0193841X20977619
    Accessed 1/5/2021, 9:15:07 AM
    Library Catalog SAGE Journals
    Language en
    Abstract Because of the different philosophy of Bayesian statistics, where parameters are random variables and data are considered fixed, the analysis and presentation of results will differ from that of frequentist statistics. Most importantly, the probabilities that a parameter is in certain regions of the parameter space are crucial quantities in Bayesian statistics that are not calculable (or considered important) in the frequentist approach that is the basis of much of traditional statistics. In this article, I discuss the implications of these differences for presentation of the results of Bayesian analyses. In doing so, I present more detailed guidelines than are usually provided and explain the rationale for my suggestions.
    Date Added 1/5/2021, 9:15:07 AM
    Modified 1/5/2021, 9:15:56 AM

    Tags:

    • rct
    • bayes
    • teaching-mds
    • reporting-statistical-results
    • reporting
    • reporting-guidelines
    • reporting-clinical-trials
  • Dicing with the unknown

    Type Journal Article
    Author Tony O'Hagan
    URL https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2004.00050.x
    Rights © 2004 The Royal Statistical Society
    Volume 1
    Issue 3
    Pages 132-133
    Publication Significance
    ISSN 1740-9713
    Date 2004
    Extra _eprint: https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2004.00050.x
    DOI https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2004.00050.x
    Accessed 11/22/2020, 3:49:11 PM
    Library Catalog Wiley Online Library
    Language en
    Abstract There are many things that I am uncertain about, says Tony O'Hagan. Some are merely unknown to me, while others are unknowable. This article is about different kinds of uncertainty, and how the distinction between them impinges on the foundations of Probability and Statistics.
    Date Added 11/22/2020, 3:49:11 PM
    Modified 11/22/2020, 3:49:53 PM

    Tags:

    • teaching
    • bayes
    • teaching-mds
    • probability
  • Détente: A Practical Understanding of P-values and Bayesian Posterior Probabilities

    Type Journal Article
    Author Stephen J. Ruberg
    URL https://ascpt.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/cpt.2004
    Rights This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Volume n/a
    Issue n/a
    Publication Clinical Pharmacology & Therapeutics
    ISSN 1532-6535
    Date 2020
    Extra _eprint: https://ascpt.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/cpt.2004
    DOI 10.1002/cpt.2004
    Accessed 8/6/2020, 8:31:38 AM
    Library Catalog Wiley Online Library
    Language en
    Abstract Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) with its benchmark p-value<0.05 has long been a stalwart of scientific reporting and such statistically significant findings have been used to imply scientifically or clinically significant findings. Challenges to this approach have arisen over the past six decades, but they have largely been unheeded. There is a growing movement for using Bayesian statistical inference to quantify the probability that a scientific finding is credible. There have been differences of opinion between the frequentist (i.e. NHST) and Bayesian schools of inference, and warnings about the use or misuse of p-values have come from both schools of thought spanning many decades. Controversies in this arena have been heightened by the American Statistical Association statement on p-values and the further denouncement of the term “statistical significance” by others. My experience has been that many scientists, including many statisticians, do not have a sound conceptual grasp of the fundamental differences in these approaches, thereby creating even greater confusion and acrimony. If we let A represent the observed data, and B represent the hypothesis of interest, then the fundamental distinction between these two approaches can be described as the frequentist approach using the conditional probability pr(A|B), i.e. the p-value, and the Bayesian approach using pr(B|A), the posterior probability. This article will further explain the fundamental differences in NHST and Bayesian approaches and demonstrate how they can co-exist harmoniously to guide clinical trial design and inference.
    Short Title Détente
    Date Added 8/6/2020, 8:31:39 AM
    Modified 8/6/2020, 8:32:23 AM

    Tags:

    • p-value
    • bayes
    • teaching-mds
  • A Gentle Introduction to the Comparison Between Null Hypothesis Testing and Bayesian Analysis: Reanalysis of Two Randomized Controlled Trials

    Type Journal Article
    Author Marcus Bendtsen
    URL https://www.jmir.org/2018/10/e10873/
    Volume 20
    Issue 10
    Pages e10873
    Publication Journal of Medical Internet Research
    Date 2018
    Extra Company: Journal of Medical Internet Research Distributor: Journal of Medical Internet Research Institution: Journal of Medical Internet Research Label: Journal of Medical Internet Research Publisher: JMIR Publications Inc., Toronto, Canada
    DOI 10.2196/10873
    Accessed 3/16/2020, 3:09:03 PM
    Library Catalog www.jmir.org
    Language en
    Abstract The debate on the use and misuse of P values has risen and fallen throughout their almost century-long existence in scientific discovery. Over the past few years, the debate has again received front-page attention, particularly through the public reminder by the American Statistical Association on how P values should be used and interpreted. At the core of the issue lies a fault in the way that scientific evidence is dichotomized and research is subsequently reported, and this fault is exacerbated by researchers giving license to statistical models to do scientific inference. This paper highlights a different approach to handling the evidence collected during a randomized controlled trial, one that does not dichotomize, but rather reports the evidence collected. Through the use of a coin flipping experiment and reanalysis of real-world data, the traditional approach of testing null hypothesis significance is contrasted with a Bayesian approach. This paper is meant to be understood by those who rely on statistical models to draw conclusions from data, but are not statisticians and may therefore not be able to grasp the debate that is primarily led by statisticians. [J Med Internet Res 2018;20(10):e10873]
    Short Title A Gentle Introduction to the Comparison Between Null Hypothesis Testing and Bayesian Analysis
    Date Added 3/16/2020, 3:09:03 PM
    Modified 3/16/2020, 3:09:43 PM

    Tags:

    • teaching
    • bayes
    • teaching-mds

    Notes:

    • Using priors forces us to be more specific and explicit about what we mean when we say that something is unknown... the Bayesian approach does not attempt to identify a fixed value for the parameters and dichotomize the world into significant and nonsignificant, but rather relies on the researcher to do the scientific inference and not to delegate this obligation to the statistical model... the NHST approach is rooted in the idea of being able to redo the experiment many times (so as to get a sampling distribution).  Even if we can rely on theoretical results to get this sampling distribution without actually going back in time and redoing the experiment, the underlying idea can be somewhat problematic.  What do we mean by redoing an experiment? Can we redo a randomized controlled trial while keeping all things equal and recruiting a new sample from the study population?... Once we remove ourselves from the dichotomization of evidence, other things start to take precedence: critically assessing the models chosen, evaluating the quality of the data, interpreting the real-world impact of the results, etc.

  • Effect of Teaching Bayesian Methods Using Learning by Concept vs Learning by Example on Medical Students’ Ability to Estimate Probability of a Diagnosis: A Randomized Clinical Trial

    Type Journal Article
    Author John E. Brush
    Author Mark Lee
    Author Jonathan Sherbino
    Author Judith C. Taylor-Fishwick
    Author Geoffrey Norman
    URL https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2757877
    Volume 2
    Issue 12
    Pages e1918023-e1918023
    Publication JAMA Network Open
    Date 2019/12/02
    Journal Abbr JAMA Netw Open
    DOI 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2019.18023
    Accessed 12/21/2019, 7:23:26 AM
    Library Catalog jamanetwork.com
    Language en
    Abstract <h3>Importance</h3><p>Clinicians use probability estimates to make a diagnosis. Teaching students to make more accurate probability estimates could improve the diagnostic process and, ultimately, the quality of medical care.</p><h3>Objective</h3><p>To test whether novice clinicians can be taught to make more accurate bayesian revisions of diagnostic probabilities using teaching methods that apply either explicit conceptual instruction or repeated examples.</p><h3>Design, Setting, and Participants</h3><p>A randomized clinical trial of 2 methods for teaching bayesian updating and diagnostic reasoning was performed. A web-based platform was used for consent, randomization, intervention, and testing of the effect of the intervention. Participants included 61 medical students at McMaster University and Eastern Virginia Medical School recruited from May 1 to September 30, 2018.</p><h3>Interventions</h3><p>Students were randomized to (1) receive explicit conceptual instruction regarding diagnostic testing and bayesian revision (concept group), (2) exposure to repeated examples of cases with feedback regarding posttest probability (experience group), or (3) a control condition with no conceptual instruction or repeated examples.</p><h3>Main Outcomes and Measures</h3><p>Students in all 3 groups were tested on their ability to update the probability of a diagnosis based on either negative or positive test results. Their probability revisions were compared with posttest probability revisions that were calculated using the Bayes rule and known test sensitivity and specificity.</p><h3>Results</h3><p>Of the 61 participants, 22 were assigned to the concept group, 20 to the experience group, and 19 to the control group. Approximate age was 25 years. Two participants were first-year; 37, second-year; 12, third-year; and 10, fourth-year students. Mean (SE) probability estimates of students in the concept group were statistically significantly closer to calculated bayesian probability than the other 2 groups (concept, 0.4%; [0.7%]; experience, 3.5% [0.7%]; control, 4.3% [0.7%];<i>P</i> &lt; .001). Although statistically significant, the differences between groups were relatively modest, and students in all groups performed better than expected, based on prior reports in the literature.</p><h3>Conclusions and Relevance</h3><p>The study showed a modest advantage for students who received theoretical instruction on bayesian concepts. All participants’ probability estimates were, on average, close to the bayesian calculation. These findings have implications for how to teach diagnostic reasoning to novice clinicians.</p><h3>Trial Registration</h3><p>ClinicalTrials.gov identifier:NCT04130607</p>
    Short Title Effect of Teaching Bayesian Methods Using Learning by Concept vs Learning by Example on Medical Students’ Ability to Estimate Probability of a Diagnosis
    Date Added 12/21/2019, 7:23:26 AM
    Modified 12/21/2019, 7:23:56 AM

    Tags:

    • teaching
    • bayes
    • teaching-mds
    • diagnosis
  • Bayesian clinical trials

    Type Journal Article
    Author Donald A. Berry
    Volume 5
    Pages 27-36
    Publication Nat Rev
    Date 2006
    Extra Citation Key: ber06bay tex.citeulike-article-id= 13265478 tex.posted-at= 2014-07-14 14:09:57 tex.priority= 0 Editorial, p. 3
    Date Added 7/7/2018, 1:38:33 PM
    Modified 11/8/2019, 8:01:59 AM

    Tags:

    • rct
    • bayesian-methods
    • teaching-mds
    • review

    Notes:

    • excellent review of Bayesian approaches in clinical trials; "The greatest virtue of the traditional approach may be its extreme rigour and narrowness of focus to the experiment at hand, but a side effect of this virtue is inflexibility, which in turn limits innovation in the design and analysis of clinical trials. ... The set of `other possible results' depends on the experimental design. ... Everything that is known is taken as given and all probabilities are calculated conditionally on known values. ... in contrast to the frequentist approach, only the probabilities of the observed results matter. ... The continuous learning that is possible in the Bayesian approach enables investigators to modify trials in midcourse. ... it is possible to learn from small samples, depending on the results, ... it is possible to adapt to what is learned to enable better treatment of patients. ... subjectivity in prior distributions is explicit and open to examination (and critique) by all. ... The Bayesian approach has several advantages in drug development. One is the process of updating knowledge gradually rather than restricting revisions in study design to large, discrete steps measured in trials or phases."

  • Teaching elementary Bayesian statistics with real applications in science

    Type Journal Article
    Author Donald A. Berry
    Volume 51
    Pages 241-246
    Publication Am Statistician
    Date 1997
    Extra Citation Key: ber97tea tex.citeulike-article-id= 13263759 tex.posted-at= 2014-07-14 14:09:22 tex.priority= 0
    Date Added 7/7/2018, 1:38:33 PM
    Modified 11/8/2019, 8:01:59 AM

    Tags:

    • teaching
    • bayesian-inference
    • scientific-approach
  • Bayes offers a `New' way to make sense of numbers

    Type Journal Article
    Author David Malakoff
    URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.286.5444.1460
    Volume 286
    Pages 1460-1464
    Publication Science
    Date 1999
    Extra Citation Key: mal99bay tex.citeulike-article-id= 13265096 tex.citeulike-linkout-0= http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.286.5444.1460 tex.posted-at= 2014-07-14 14:09:49 tex.priority= 0
    DOI 10.1126/science.286.5444.1460
    Date Added 7/7/2018, 1:38:33 PM
    Modified 11/8/2019, 8:01:59 AM

    Tags:

    • teaching
    • rct
    • bayes
    • clinical-trials
  • Doing Bayesian Data Analysis: A Tutorial with R, JAGS, and Stan

    Type Book
    Author John K. Kruschke
    URL http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/book/9780124058880
    Edition Second Edition
    Place Waltham MA
    Publisher Academic Press
    ISBN 978-0-12-405888-0
    Date 2015
    Extra Citation Key: kru15doi tex.citeulike-article-id= 14172337 tex.citeulike-linkout-0= http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/book/9780124058880 tex.posted-at= 2016-10-26 21:46:24 tex.priority= 4
    Date Added 7/7/2018, 1:38:33 PM
    Modified 11/8/2019, 8:01:59 AM

    Tags:

    • bayesian-inference
    • bayes
    • bayesian-methods
    • teaching-mds
  • Statistical rethinking : a Bayesian course with examples in R and Stan

    Type Book
    Author Richard McElreath
    URL http://www.worldcat.org/isbn/9781482253443
    ISBN 978-1-4822-5344-3
    Date 2016
    Extra Citation Key: mce16sta tex.citeulike-article-id= 14255283 tex.citeulike-linkout-0= http://www.worldcat.org/isbn/9781482253443 tex.citeulike-linkout-1= http://books.google.com/books?vid=ISBN9781482253443 tex.citeulike-linkout-2= http://www.amazon.com/gp/search?keywords=9781482253443&index=books&linkCode=qs tex.citeulike-linkout-3= http://www.librarything.com/isbn/9781482253443 tex.citeulike-linkout-4= http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/920672225 tex.posted-at= 2017-01-15 19:24:57 tex.priority= 4
    Date Added 7/7/2018, 1:38:33 PM
    Modified 11/8/2019, 8:01:59 AM

    Tags:

    • bayesian-inference
    • bayes
    • bayesian-methods
    • teaching-mds
  • Bayesian inference for psychology. Part I: Theoretical advantages and practical ramifications

    Type Journal Article
    Author Eric-Jan Wagenmakers
    Author Maarten Marsman
    Author Tahira Jamil
    Author Alexander Ly
    Author Josine Verhagen
    Author Jonathon Love
    Author Ravi Selker
    Author Quentin F. Gronau
    Author Martin ̌Sḿıra
    Author Sacha Epskamp
    Author Dora Matzke
    Author Jeffrey N. Rouder
    Author Richard D. Morey
    URL http://dx.doi.org/10.3758/s13423-017-1343-3
    Pages 1-23
    Date 2017
    Extra Citation Key: wag17bay1 tex.booktitle= Psychonomic Bulletin & Review tex.citeulike-article-id= 14438461 tex.citeulike-linkout-0= http://dx.doi.org/10.3758/s13423-017-1343-3 tex.citeulike-linkout-1= http://link.springer.com/article/10.3758/s13423-017-1343-3 tex.posted-at= 2017-09-26 18:41:53 tex.priority= 0 tex.publisher= Springer US
    DOI 10.3758/s13423-017-1343-3
    Date Added 7/7/2018, 1:38:33 PM
    Modified 11/8/2019, 8:01:59 AM

    Tags:

    • bayesian-inference
    • bayes
    • excellent-for-teaching-bayesian-methods-and-explaining-the-advantages
  • The Analysis of Experimental Data: The Appreciation of Tea and Wine

    Type Journal Article
    Author Dennis V. Lindley
    URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9639.1993.tb00252.x
    Volume 15
    Issue 1
    Pages 22-25
    Publication Teaching Statistics
    Date 1993-03
    Extra Citation Key: lin93ana tex.citeulike-article-id= 10418027 tex.citeulike-attachment-1= lin93ana.pdf; /pdf/user/harrelfe/article/10418027/1121742/lin93ana.pdf; 243d4fbea879999e1f76b707d0e2502d5aca542f tex.citeulike-linkout-0= http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9639.1993.tb00252.x tex.day= 1 tex.posted-at= 2017-10-31 12:04:19 tex.priority= 0 tex.publisher= Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    DOI 10.1111/j.1467-9639.1993.tb00252.x
    Abstract A classical experiment on the tasting of tea is used to show that many standard methods of analysis of the resulting data are unsatisfactory. A similar experiment with wine is used to show how a more sensible method may be developed.
    Date Added 7/7/2018, 1:38:33 PM
    Modified 11/8/2019, 8:01:59 AM

    Tags:

    • bayes
    • teaching-statisticians
    • teaching-mds
  • The Substitute for p-Values

    Type Journal Article
    Author William M. Briggs
    URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2017.1311264
    Volume 112
    Issue 519
    Pages 897-898
    Publication JASA
    Date 2017-07
    Extra Citation Key: bri17sub tex.citeulike-article-id= 14479856 tex.citeulike-attachment-1= bri17sub.pdf; /pdf/user/harrelfe/article/14479856/1123078/bri17sub.pdf; e2946ca2518f20e15d607a0bccb9accb149c2c19 tex.citeulike-linkout-0= http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2017.1311264 tex.citeulike-linkout-1= http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01621459.2017.1311264 tex.day= 3 tex.posted-at= 2017-11-21 14:33:28 tex.priority= 0 tex.publisher= Taylor & Francis
    DOI 10.1080/01621459.2017.1311264
    Abstract If it was not obvious before, after reading McShane and Gal, the conclusion is that p-values should be proscribed. There are no good uses for them; indeed, every use either violates frequentist theory, is fallacious, or is based on a misunderstanding. A replacement for p-values is suggested, based on predictive models.
    Date Added 7/7/2018, 1:38:33 PM
    Modified 11/8/2019, 8:01:59 AM

    Tags:

    • bayesian-inference
    • p-values
    • teaching-statisticians
    • teaching-mds
  • Bayesian estimation supersedes the t test.

    Type Journal Article
    Author John K. Kruschke
    URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/a0029146
    Volume 142
    Issue 2
    Pages 573-603
    Publication J Exp Psych
    ISSN 1939-2222
    Date 2013-05
    Extra Citation Key: kru13bay tex.citeulike-article-id= 11639960 tex.citeulike-attachment-1= kru13bay.pdf; /pdf/user/harrelfe/article/11639960/1136836/kru13bay.pdf; dea60927efbd1f284b4132eae3461ea7ce0fb62a tex.citeulike-linkout-0= http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/a0029146 tex.citeulike-linkout-1= http://view.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22774788 tex.citeulike-linkout-2= http://www.hubmed.org/display.cgi?uids=22774788 tex.day= 9 tex.pmid= 22774788 tex.posted-at= 2018-05-18 03:54:13 tex.priority= 4
    DOI 10.1037/a0029146
    Abstract Bayesian estimation for 2 groups provides complete distributions of credible values for the effect size, group means and their difference, standard deviations and their difference, and the normality of the data. The method handles outliers. The decision rule can accept the null value (unlike traditional t tests) when certainty in the estimate is high (unlike Bayesian model comparison using Bayes factors). The method also yields precise estimates of statistical power for various research goals. The software and programs are free and run on Macintosh, Windows, and Linux platforms. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.
    Date Added 7/7/2018, 1:38:33 PM
    Modified 11/8/2019, 8:01:59 AM

    Tags:

    • bayesian-inference
    • bayes
    • teaching-mds
    • tutorial
    • basic
  • Implementing the Bayesian paradigm: reporting research results over the World-Wide Web.

    Type Journal Article
    Author H. P. Lehmann
    Author M. R. Wachter
    URL http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2232964/
    Pages 433-437
    Publication Proceedings : a conference of the American Medical Informatics Association / ... AMIA Annual Fall Symposium. AMIA Fall Symposium
    ISSN 1091-8280
    Date 1996
    Extra Citation Key: leh96imp tex.citeulike-article-id= 13346740 tex.citeulike-attachment-1= leh96imp.pdf; /pdf/user/harrelfe/article/13346740/983544/leh96imp.pdf; b5a59f8e18230cb4ddc17759b426db8f88cb2e69 tex.citeulike-linkout-0= http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2232964/ tex.citeulike-linkout-1= http://view.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8947703 tex.citeulike-linkout-2= http://www.hubmed.org/display.cgi?uids=8947703 tex.pmcid= PMC2232964 tex.pmid= 8947703 tex.posted-at= 2014-09-04 12:57:17 tex.priority= 0
    Abstract For decades, statisticians, philosophers, medical investigators and others interested in data analysis have argued that the Bayesian paradigm is the proper approach for reporting the results of scientific analyses for use by clients and readers. To date, the methods have been too complicated for non-statisticians to use. In this paper we argue that the World-Wide Web provides the perfect environment to put the Bayesian paradigm into practice: the likelihood function of the data is parsimoniously represented on the server side, the reader uses the client to represent her prior belief, and a downloaded program (a Java applet) performs the combination. In our approach, a different applet can be used for each likelihood function, prior belief can be assessed graphically, and calculation results can be reported in a variety of ways. We present a prototype implementation, BayesApplet, for two-arm clinical trials with normally-distributed outcomes, a prominent model for clinical trials. The primary implication of this work is that publishing medical research results on the Web can take a form beyond or different from that currently used on paper, and can have a profound impact on the publication and use of research results.
    Date Added 7/7/2018, 1:38:33 PM
    Modified 11/8/2019, 8:01:59 AM

    Tags:

    • rct
    • bayes
    • teaching-mds
  • Interpretation of subgroup analyses in medical device clinical trials

    Type Journal Article
    Author Pamela E. Scott
    Author Gregory Campbell
    Volume 32
    Pages 213-220
    Publication Drug Info J
    Date 1998
    Extra Citation Key: sco98int tex.citeulike-article-id= 13264822 tex.posted-at= 2014-07-14 14:09:42 tex.priority= 0
    Date Added 7/7/2018, 1:38:33 PM
    Modified 11/8/2019, 8:01:59 AM

    Tags:

    • teaching
    • shrinkage
    • empirical-bayes
    • subgroup-analysis
    • differential-treatment-effects
  • The intellectual health of clinical drug evaluation

    Type Journal Article
    Author Lewis B. Sheiner
    URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/clpt.1991.97
    Volume 50
    Pages 4-9
    Publication Clin Pharm Ther
    Date 1991
    Extra Citation Key: she91int tex.citeulike-article-id= 13264842 tex.citeulike-linkout-0= http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/clpt.1991.97 tex.posted-at= 2014-07-14 14:09:44 tex.priority= 0
    DOI 10.1038/clpt.1991.97
    Date Added 7/7/2018, 1:38:33 PM
    Modified 11/8/2019, 8:01:59 AM

    Tags:

    • bayesian-inference
    • rct
    • teaching-mds
    • statistical-significance
    • reporting
    • compliance
    • clinical-trials
    • hypothesis-testing
    • review

    Notes:

    • problems with traditional statistical approaches to drug evaluation;problems with under-emphasis of type II error

  • Bayesian statistics without tears: A sampling-resampling perspective

    Type Journal Article
    Author A. F. M. Smith
    Author A. E. Gelfand
    Volume 46
    Pages 84-88
    Publication Am Statistician
    Date 1992
    Extra Citation Key: smi92bay tex.citeulike-article-id= 13264874 tex.posted-at= 2014-07-14 14:09:44 tex.priority= 0
    Date Added 7/7/2018, 1:38:33 PM
    Modified 11/8/2019, 8:01:59 AM

    Tags:

    • teaching
    • bayesian-inference
    • changing-prior
    • sampling-importance-resampling
    • weighted-bootstrap
  • Bayesian communication of research results over the World Wide Web

    Type Journal Article
    Author Harold P. Lehmann
    Author Bach Nguyen
    URL http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9308343
    Volume 14
    Issue 5
    Pages 353-359
    Publication M.D. Computing
    Date 1997
    Extra Citation Key: leh97bay tex.citeulike-article-id= 13264497 tex.citeulike-linkout-0= http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9308343 tex.posted-at= 2014-07-14 14:09:36 tex.priority= 0
    Date Added 7/7/2018, 1:38:33 PM
    Modified 11/8/2019, 8:01:59 AM

    Tags:

    • bayesian-methods
    • varying-prior-using-www
    • web-based-teaching
  • The statistical basis of public policy: A paradigm shift is overdue

    Type Journal Article
    Author R. J. Lilford
    Author D. Braunholtz
    Volume 313
    Pages 603-607
    Publication BMJ
    Date 1996
    Extra Citation Key: lil96sta tex.citeulike-article-id= 13264515 tex.posted-at= 2014-07-14 14:09:37 tex.priority= 0
    Date Added 7/7/2018, 1:38:33 PM
    Modified 11/8/2019, 8:01:59 AM

    Tags:

    • bayesian-inference
    • teaching-mds
    • excellent-for-teaching-bayesian-methods-and-explaining-the-advantages
    • adjusting-for-study-bias-or-quality
  • Bayesian statistical methods in public health and medicine

    Type Journal Article
    Author R. D. Etzioni
    Author J. B. Kadane
    Volume 16
    Pages 23-41
    Publication Ann Rev Pub Hlth
    Date 1995
    Extra Citation Key: etz95bay tex.citeulike-article-id= 13264055 tex.posted-at= 2014-07-14 14:09:28 tex.priority= 0
    Date Added 7/7/2018, 1:38:33 PM
    Modified 11/8/2019, 8:01:59 AM

    Tags:

    • teaching
    • bayesian-inference
  • Tutorial in Biostatistics: Bayesian data monitoring in clinical trials

    Type Journal Article
    Author Peter M. Fayers
    Author Deborah Ashby
    Author Mahesh K. Parmar
    Volume 16
    Pages 1413-1430
    Publication Stat Med
    Date 1997
    Extra Citation Key: fay97bay tex.citeulike-article-id= 13264065 tex.posted-at= 2014-07-14 14:09:28 tex.priority= 0
    Date Added 7/7/2018, 1:38:33 PM
    Modified 11/8/2019, 8:01:59 AM

    Tags:

    • bayesian-inference
    • sequential-monitoring
    • study-design
    • rct
    • choice-of-prior-distribution
    • convincing-clinicians-to-alter-medical-practice
    • skeptical-prior
    • teaching-paper
  • Bayesian statistical methods

    Type Journal Article
    Author Laurence Freedman
    Volume 313
    Pages 569-570
    Publication BMJ
    Date 1996
    Extra Citation Key: fre96bay tex.citeulike-article-id= 13264103 tex.posted-at= 2014-07-14 14:09:29 tex.priority= 0
    Date Added 7/7/2018, 1:38:33 PM
    Modified 11/8/2019, 8:01:59 AM

    Tags:

    • bayesian-inference
    • teaching-mds
  • Teaching Bayesian statistics using sampling methods and MINITAB

    Type Journal Article
    Author James H. Albert
    Volume 47
    Pages 182-191
    Publication Am Statistician
    Date 1993
    Extra Citation Key: alb93tea tex.citeulike-article-id= 13263681 tex.posted-at= 2014-07-14 14:09:21 tex.priority= 0
    Date Added 7/7/2018, 1:38:33 PM
    Modified 11/8/2019, 8:01:59 AM

    Tags:

    • teaching
    • bayesian-inference
    • sampling-importance-resampling
    • weighted-bootstrap
  • Bayesian data analysis for newcomers

    Type Journal Article
    Author John K. Kruschke
    Author Torrin M. Liddell
    URL http://dx.doi.org/10.3758/s13423-017-1272-1
    Pages 1-23
    Date 2017
    Extra Citation Key: kru17bay tex.booktitle= Psychonomic Bulletin & Review tex.citeulike-article-id= 14379017 tex.citeulike-attachment-1= kru17bay.pdf; /pdf/user/harrelfe/article/14379017/1112234/kru17bay.pdf; 667a350e04440965997f085062e0249269d20ce3 tex.citeulike-linkout-0= http://dx.doi.org/10.3758/s13423-017-1272-1 tex.citeulike-linkout-1= http://link.springer.com/article/10.3758/s13423-017-1272-1 tex.posted-at= 2017-06-19 02:27:08 tex.priority= 0 tex.publisher= Springer US
    DOI 10.3758/s13423-017-1272-1
    Date Added 7/7/2018, 1:38:33 PM
    Modified 11/8/2019, 8:01:59 AM

    Tags:

    • teaching
    • bayesian-inference
    • teaching-mds

    Notes:

    • Excellent for teaching Bayesian methods and explaining the advantages