• Natural cubic splines for the analysis of Alzheimer's clinical trials

    Type Journal Article
    Author Michael C. Donohue
    Author Oliver Langford
    Author Philip S. Insel
    Author Christopher H. van Dyck
    Author Ronald C. Petersen
    Author Suzanne Craft
    Author Gopalan Sethuraman
    Author Rema Raman
    Author Paul S. Aisen
    Author For the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative
    URL https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/pst.2285
    Volume n/a
    Issue n/a
    Publication Pharmaceutical Statistics
    ISSN 1539-1612
    Extra _eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/pst.2285
    DOI 10.1002/pst.2285
    Accessed 1/11/2023, 6:15:16 AM
    Library Catalog Wiley Online Library
    Language en
    Abstract Mixed model repeated measures (MMRM) is the most common analysis approach used in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease and other progressive diseases measured with continuous outcomes over time. The model treats time as a categorical variable, which allows an unconstrained estimate of the mean for each study visit in each randomized group. Categorizing time in this way can be problematic when assessments occur off-schedule, as including off-schedule visits can induce bias, and excluding them ignores valuable information and violates the intention to treat principle. This problem has been exacerbated by clinical trial visits which have been delayed due to the COVID19 pandemic. As an alternative to MMRM, we propose a constrained longitudinal data analysis with natural cubic splines that treats time as continuous and uses test version effects to model the mean over time. Compared to categorical-time models like MMRM and models that assume a proportional treatment effect, the spline model is shown to be more parsimonious and precise in real clinical trial datasets, and has better power and Type I error in a variety of simulation scenarios.
    Date Added 1/11/2023, 6:15:16 AM
    Modified 1/11/2023, 7:16:13 AM

    Tags:

    • longitudinal
    • rct
    • serial
    • spline
    • splines-for-time-trends
    • teaching-mds
  • Comparison of multistate Markov modeling with contemporary outcomes in a reanalysis of the NINDS tissue plasminogen activator for acute ischemic stroke treatment trial

    Type Journal Article
    Author Christy Cassarly
    Author Renee’ H. Martin
    Author Marc Chimowitz
    Author Edsel A. Peña
    Author Viswanathan Ramakrishnan
    Author Yuko Y. Palesch
    URL https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0187050
    Volume 12
    Issue 10
    Pages e0187050
    Publication PLOS ONE
    ISSN 1932-6203
    Date Oct 26, 2017
    Extra Publisher: Public Library of Science
    Journal Abbr PLOS ONE
    DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0187050
    Accessed 12/16/2022, 7:03:44 AM
    Library Catalog PLoS Journals
    Language en
    Abstract Historically, ordinal measures of functional outcome have been dichotomized for the primary analysis in acute stroke therapy trials. A number of alternative methods to analyze the ordinal scales have been proposed, with an emphasis on maintaining the ordinal structure as much as possible. In addition, despite the availability of longitudinal outcome data in many trials, the primary analysis consists of a single endpoint. Inclusion of information about the course of disease progression allows for a more complete understanding of the treatment effect. Multistate Markov modeling, which allows for the full ordinal scale to be analyzed longitudinally, is compared with previously suggested analytic techniques for the ordinal modified Rankin Scale (dichotomous-logistic regression; continuous-linear regression; ordinal- shift analysis, proportional odds model, partial proportional odds model, adjacent categories logit model; sliding dichotomy; utility weights; repeated measures). In addition, a multistate Markov model utilizing an estimate of the unobservable baseline outcome derived from principal component analysis is compared Each of the methods is used to re-analyze the National Institute of Neurological Diseases and Stroke tissue plasminogen activator study which showed a consistently significant effect of tissue plasminogen activator using a global test of four dichotomized outcomes in the analysis of the primary outcome at 90 days post-stroke in the primary analysis. All methods detected a statistically significant treatment effect except the multistate Markov model without predicted baseline (p = 0.053). This provides support for the use of the estimated baseline in the multistate Markov model since the treatment effect is able to be detected with its inclusion. Multistate Markov modeling allows for a more refined examination of treatment effect and describes the movement between modified Rankin Scale states over time which may provide more clinical insight into the treatment effect. Multistate Markov models are feasible and desirable in describing treatment effect in acute stroke therapy trials.
    Date Added 12/16/2022, 7:03:44 AM
    Modified 12/16/2022, 7:04:29 AM

    Tags:

    • teaching-mds
    • longitudinal
    • serial
    • multistate-model
    • ordinal
    • markov
  • Power and sample size for multistate model analysis of longitudinal discrete outcomes in disease prevention trials

    Type Journal Article
    Author Isabelle L. Smith
    Author Jane E. Nixon
    Author Linda Sharples
    URL http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/sim.8882
    Rights © 2021 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
    Volume n/a
    Issue n/a
    Publication Statistics in Medicine
    ISSN 1097-0258
    Date 2021
    Extra _eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/sim.8882
    DOI https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.8882
    Accessed 2/12/2021, 11:20:57 AM
    Library Catalog Wiley Online Library
    Language en
    Abstract For clinical trials where participants pass through a number of discrete health states resulting in longitudinal measures over time, there are several potential primary estimands for the treatment effect. Incidence or time to a particular health state are commonly used outcomes but the choice of health state may not be obvious and these estimands do not make full use of the longitudinal assessments. Multistate models have been developed for some diseases and conditions with the purpose of understanding their natural history and have been used for secondary analysis to understand mechanisms of action of treatments. There is little published on the use of multistate models as the primary analysis method and potential implications on design features, such as assessment schedules. We illustrate methods via analysis of data from a motivating example; a Phase III clinical trial of pressure ulcer prevention strategies. We clarify some of the possible estimands that might be considered and we show, via a simulation study, that under some circumstances the sample size could be reduced by half using a multistate model based analysis, without adversely affecting the power of the trial.
    Date Added 2/12/2021, 11:20:57 AM
    Modified 2/25/2021, 8:34:44 AM

    Tags:

    • sample-size
    • rct
    • teaching-mds
    • power
    • multiple-endpoints
    • transition-model
    • longitudinal
    • serial
    • multi-state-model
    • multiple-states
    • ordinal
    • markov
    • key
  • Repeated measures in clinical trials: Simple strategies for analysis using summary measures

    Type Journal Article
    Author Stephen Senn
    Author Lynda Stevens
    Author Nish Chaturvedi
    URL https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10734289
    Volume 19
    Pages 861-877
    Publication Stat Med
    Date 2000
    Extra Citation Key: sen00rep tex.citeulike-article-id= 13265118 tex.citeulike-linkout-0= http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0258(20000330)19:6%3C861::AID-SIM407%3E3.0.CO;2-F tex.posted-at= 2014-07-14 14:09:49 tex.priority= 0
    DOI 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0258(20000330)19:6<861::AID-SIM407>3.0.CO;2-F
    Date Added 7/7/2018, 1:38:33 PM
    Modified 6/12/2020, 6:11:53 AM

    Tags:

    • serial-data
    • teaching-mds
    • repeated-measures
    • summary-measures
    • auc
    • slope
  • Regression models for the analysis of pretest/posttest data

    Type Journal Article
    Author Julio M. Singer
    Author Dalton F. Andrade
    URL http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2533973
    Volume 53
    Pages 729-735
    Publication Biometrics
    Date 1997
    Extra Citation Key: sin97reg tex.citeulike-article-id= 13264865 tex.citeulike-linkout-0= http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2533973 tex.posted-at= 2014-07-14 14:09:44 tex.priority= 0
    DOI 10.2307/2533973
    Date Added 7/7/2018, 1:38:33 PM
    Modified 11/8/2019, 8:01:59 AM

    Tags:

    • serial-data
    • teaching-mds
    • repeated-measures
    • change
    • analysis-of-change
    • baseline-measurement-as-covariable
    • multiplicative-model
    • pretest-posttest

    Notes:

    • problems with using baseline measurement as covariate

  • A refinement to the analysis of serial data using summary measures

    Type Journal Article
    Author J. N. S. Matthews
    URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sim.4780120105
    Volume 12
    Pages 27-37
    Publication Stat Med
    Date 1993
    Extra Citation Key: mat93ref tex.citeulike-article-id= 13264584 tex.citeulike-linkout-0= http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sim.4780120105 tex.posted-at= 2014-07-14 14:09:38 tex.priority= 0
    DOI 10.1002/sim.4780120105
    Date Added 7/7/2018, 1:38:33 PM
    Modified 11/8/2019, 8:01:59 AM

    Tags:

    • longitudinal-data
    • serial-data
    • teaching-mds
    • weighting
    • summary-measures
    • auc
    • area-under-the-curve
    • weighting-each-subject-differently
  • Analysis of serial measurements in medical research

    Type Journal Article
    Author J. N. S. Matthews
    Author Douglas G. Altman
    Author M. J. Campbell
    Author Patrick Royston
    URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.300.6719.230
    Volume 300
    Pages 230-235
    Publication BMJ
    Date 1990
    Extra Citation Key: mat90ana tex.citeulike-article-id= 13264583 tex.citeulike-linkout-0= http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.300.6719.230 tex.posted-at= 2014-07-14 14:09:38 tex.priority= 0 Letter to editor by S. Senn in same issue
    DOI 10.1136/bmj.300.6719.230
    Date Added 7/7/2018, 1:38:33 PM
    Modified 11/8/2019, 8:01:59 AM

    Tags:

    • serial-data
    • teaching-mds
    • summary-measures
    • repeated-measurements
    • growth-curve
    • peak-vs-growth-relationships
    • relating-peak-to-time-to-peak